The post Why Galaxy Research believes THIS level could end Bitcoin’s bear market appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Bitcoin’s weekly gains hit 25%, and it nearly cleared the $80K mark after $4B in short liquidations and a macro-driven regime shift. The rally reclaimed the key 200-day Moving Average (currently at $69K), and the short-term holder (STH) realized cost basis of $68K. From a price technical perspective, reclaiming these key levels meant the short and midterm structure for BTC has flipped bullish. But the question remains: Does it mean the bear market is behind us? Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView Bitcoin rally: A dead-cat bounce or start of a bull run? For his part, Jake Ostrovskis, Head of OTC (over-the-counter) trading at market maker Wintermute, acknowledged that this week can’t be faded. However, he added that there was no “full participation” to signal a true trend reversal and regime shift as claimed by others. But zoom out and positioning doesn’t yet show full participation: OI well below YTD highs, let alone ’25/4, basis still sub-5%, skew only just flipped positive, wings still cheap. Hard to argue positioning is ‘stretched’ here in a new regime. Source: Velo Basis yield is the spread hedge funds lock in if they buy a U.S Spot BTC ETF and sell an equivalent BTC futures contract over CME. During the bull run in 2024, the yield averaged 10%. It collapsed after the October crash and has been flat around 5%. For Wintermute’s Ostrovskis, this meant the institutional participation seen in the past was yet to join the recent bounce. According to him, this signals caution, not a full bullish regime shift. Surprisingly, Jason Calanis, founder of All In Podcast and serial internet entrepreneur, called the rally a “dead-cat bounce.” In most cases, dead-cat bounces are fake breakouts that end up being reversed. In fact, others expected BTC to reverse and retest $70K-$72K ahead of next week’s Jackson…